Retirement answers
Can I retire at 65 with $500,000?
Probably not — at $40,000 a year of spending. Retiring at 65 with $500,000, the money lasts to age 100 in 0% of 1,000 simulated markets at that spending level, and the most it reliably supports — with at least 80% of paths lasting — is about $17,000 a year in today’s dollars.
The odds, spending level by spending level
| Yearly spending | Odds it lasts to 100 | Typical (median) path |
|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | 4% | runs out around age 87 |
| $40,000typical | 0% | runs out around age 80 |
| $50,000 | 0% | runs out around age 77 |
| $60,000 | 0% | runs out around age 75 |
| $80,000 | 0% | runs out around age 72 |
| $100,000 | 0% | runs out around age 71 |
Spending is what savings must cover, in today’s dollars — Social Security or a pension would sit on top.
Try your own numbers
Retirement outlook
You could retire at 81.
Retired today, your money runs out before 100 in 100% of scenarios — typically around age 80.
Today
Retirement
Markets
Projected net worth to 100, in today’s dollars
Today’s dollarsat% inflationQuestions people ask
- Can I retire at 65 with $500,000?
- Probably not. Retiring at 65 with $500,000 and spending $40,000 a year (in today's dollars), the money lasts to age 100 in 0% of 1,000 simulated market paths. On the median path it runs out around age 80.
- How much can I spend if I retire at 65 with $500,000?
- About $17,000 a year in today's dollars — the most spending at which at least 80% of simulated markets still last to age 100. Spend more and the odds slip: at $60,000 a year they fall to 0%.
- How long will $500,000 last from age 65?
- It depends almost entirely on spending. At $40,000 a year the median market path runs out around age 80; at $80,000 a year it runs out around age 72.
- Do these numbers include Social Security?
- No. The odds assume savings cover every dollar of spending. If you expect Social Security or a pension, your savings only need to cover the gap — so your real answer is better than the one on this page.
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The assumptions behind these numbers
Every figure comes from 1,000 simulated market paths assuming a 6% average yearly return in retirement (10% while still saving) with year-to-year swings scaled to those returns, and 3% inflation — so every dollar reads as today’s dollars, and “works” means the money lasts to age 100 in at least 80% of paths.
Social Security, pensions, and taxes aren’t modeled. If you expect income from those, your real answer is better than the one on this page. For exploring, not financial advice.