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How long will my money last?
Enter what you’ve saved and what you spend, and watch a thousand simulated markets play your retirement out — the typical run-out age, the unlucky-quarter case, and the odds your money reaches 100. In today’s dollars, with the bumpy years included.
The money
The setting
Drawdown outlook
Typically runs out around age 80.
$500K spending $40,000 a year from age 65 covers about 15 years on the median market path, and lasts to 100 in 0% of 1,000 simulated markets — though in the unluckiest quarter of markets it’s gone by 79.
Projected net worth to 100, in today’s dollars
Questions people ask
- How long will $500,000 last in retirement?
- Spending $40,000 a year from age 65, $500,000 typically runs out around age 80 on the median simulated market path, and lasts to 100 in 0% of 1,000 simulated markets. Your answer moves fast with spending — slide it and watch.
- Why a range of outcomes instead of one date?
- Because markets don't grow in a straight line. A bad run of years early in retirement drains savings much faster than the same average return delivered smoothly — the order of returns matters. Simulating 1,000 paths shows the typical case, the unlucky quarter, and the odds of lasting to 100, which one average-return math can't.
- What does 'in today's dollars' mean here?
- Spending is assumed to rise with prices, and every balance is shown in what it could buy today. So a result like 'runs out at 87' already accounts for inflation eating at your money each year.
- Does this include Social Security?
- No — the spending here is what your savings alone must cover. If Social Security or a pension covers part of your budget, enter just the rest, and your money lasts much longer.
Keep exploring
The assumptions behind these numbers
Every figure comes from 1,000 simulated market paths assuming a 6% average yearly return in retirement (10% while still saving) with year-to-year swings scaled to those returns, and 3% inflation — so every dollar reads as today’s dollars, and “works” means the money lasts to age 100 in at least 80% of paths.
Social Security, pensions, and taxes aren’t modeled. If you expect income from those, your real answer is better than the one on this page. For exploring, not financial advice.