Retirement answers
How much do I need to retire at 50?
About $1,430,000 in today’s dollars — enough to spend $40,000 a year with at least 80% of 1,000 simulated markets lasting to age 100. Want 90% confidence instead? About $1,635,000. Your own number depends almost entirely on spending — the table below walks every level.
What retiring at 50 costs, by yearly spending
| Yearly spending | Needed at 80% confidence | Needed at 90% confidence | The 4% rule says |
|---|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | $1,075,000 | $1,230,000 | $750,000 |
| $40,000typical | $1,430,000 | $1,635,000 | $1,000,000 |
| $50,000 | $1,785,000 | $2,045,000 | $1,250,000 |
| $60,000 | $2,145,000 | $2,455,000 | $1,500,000 |
| $80,000 | $2,860,000 | $3,270,000 | $2,000,000 |
| $100,000 | $3,570,000 | $4,090,000 | $2,500,000 |
All amounts are today’s dollars at the moment you retire. Spending is what savings must cover — Social Security or a pension would shrink it.
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Retirement outlook
You could retire today.
Retired today, your money lasts to 100 in 80% of market scenarios — typically with about $985.7K to spare.
Today
Retirement
Markets
Projected net worth to 100, in today’s dollars
Today’s dollarsat% inflationQuestions people ask
- How much money do I need to retire at 50?
- About $1,430,000 in today's dollars, if you spend $40,000 a year — that's the smallest nest egg where at least 80% of 1,000 simulated market paths last to age 100. For 90% confidence you'd want about $1,635,000. Spend more, need more: the table on this page walks every level from $30,000 to $100,000.
- Is the 4% rule enough to retire at 50?
- The 4% rule says 25× your yearly spending — $1,000,000 for $40,000 a year. This simulation puts the 80%-confidence number at $1,430,000 for a retirement running from 50 all the way to 100 — more than the rule suggests, mostly because the rule was built for a 30-year retirement.
- How much do I need to retire at 50 with 90% confidence?
- About $1,635,000 at $40,000 a year of spending, in today's dollars. The step up from 80% to 90% confidence costs about $205K — the price of covering more of the market's bad decades.
- Do these numbers include Social Security?
- No. They assume savings cover every dollar of spending. If you expect Social Security or a pension, size the spending here to just the gap your savings must fill — the number you need drops fast.
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The assumptions behind these numbers
Every figure comes from 1,000 simulated market paths assuming a 6% average yearly return in retirement (10% while still saving) with year-to-year swings scaled to those returns, and 3% inflation — so every dollar reads as today’s dollars, and “works” means the money lasts to age 100 in at least 80% of paths.
Social Security, pensions, and taxes aren’t modeled. If you expect income from those, your real answer is better than the one on this page. For exploring, not financial advice.